NASA Sends Mission to Intercept Asteroid That Could Hit Earth

NASA Sends Mission to Intercept Asteroid That Could Hit Earth

What about that asteroid that could hit Earth?

Scientists will debate in the coming weeks whether to send a mission to intercept an asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032.

It may sound like the plot of a Hollywood movie, a European Space Agency (ESA) scientist told Yahoo News. But one option scientists have is to crash a satellite into the space rock and deflect it, they said.

Last week, the European Space Agency raised the odds of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 2.2 percent after updating data from its telescopes recently.

If the asteroid still poses a threat and is more than 50 meters (164 feet) wide, scientists will begin discussing sending a mission to intercept it in May.

"We can start discussing whether there's any point in sending a mission there in May," Juan L. Cano of the European Space Agency's Planetary Defense Office told Yahoo News. "The problem is that we only have seven and a half years to do something and develop and build a satellite by that point. It's going to be very constraining."

What will scientists know by May?

The object is moving away from Earth, and scientists are aiming larger and larger telescopes at it to get a clearer picture of its trajectory and size.

The object's "apocalypse"—its farthest point from the sun—is close to Jupiter. It was spotted as it passed Earth from the sun. The object will only be within the reach of telescopes for a short time.

"We need to keep observing this object as much as possible," Cano said. "The object is moving away from us and getting farther away each time we need telescopes targeting it. We've now reached a point where we need two-meter telescopes to observe the object.

"By next month, we'll need four-meter and eight-meter ones." Finally, larger telescopes, such as the 10-meter Canary Islands Telescope."

The European Space Agency has requested that the James Webb Space Telescope monitor the asteroid until mid-May.

Cano hopes scientists will have enough information by May to decide whether the object will hit Earth and how big it is.

If the object is likely to hit Earth, what will scientists do?

Depending on the size of the object, scientists will discuss either sending a mission to deflect it or clearing the area where it might hit.

"We have two scenarios here," Cano told Yahoo News. "If the impact probability has not decreased in April and the object is larger than 50 meters, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group will decide whether to propose a deflection mission."

"If not, the proposed solution is to clear the impact area."

When the asteroid returns, its trajectory will be well understood enough for scientists to clear it.

What might a "deflection" mission look like?

NASA and the European Space Agency have been investigating how to change an asteroid's path by hitting it with a spacecraft.

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission collided with the asteroid Dimorphos in September 2022.

The collision successfully changed Dimorphos' orbit, and scientists now hope to study the space rock more closely to understand how similar missions might be launched.

The European Space Agency's Hera spacecraft will enter Dimorphos' orbit and scan it. In October 2026, the Hera spacecraft is due to make a close approach to a larger asteroid, Didymos. By analyzing the results from DART, Hera will provide information that could be used to repeat the feat with other objects.

Another possible option would be to fire a nuclear weapon at the asteroid, astronomer Dr David Whitehouse told Sky News.

How big is the asteroid?

The asteroid was spotted on December 27 by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).

ATLAS is an asteroid impact warning system that consists of four telescopes. It is designed to provide a minimum of "several weeks" warning before a 300-foot asteroid like 2024 YR4 impacts.

As telescope technology has improved, the number of asteroids detected has increased, although the number of space rocks has remained the same.

The European Space Agency estimates that the asteroid is between 40 and 100 meters wide. That makes the space rock about as wide as London's Big Ben, which is 96 meters tall.

What kind of damage could it cause?

It's difficult to predict any potential damage accurately. NASA says a 100-meter-wide asteroid would have 10 times the destructive power of the 2021 Tongan volcanic eruption, which caused a massive explosion and tsunami in several countries.

The damage from such an explosion would vary depending on where the asteroid hits.

The European Space Agency said: "An asteroid of this size will hit Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause significant damage to a local area." NASA says the impact could kill up to a million people, "averaging across all potential impact sites."

"These deaths could result from a direct hit or a tsunami in the event of an ocean impact," it adds.

An asteroid thought to have been about 18 meters wide exploded over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk in 2013.

During the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the intense overpressure generated by the shock wave on Earth's surface injured 1,500 people and damaged 7,300 buildings.

When could it hit Earth?

The time of closest approach (when it could hit) is December 22, 2032.

The asteroid is rated as a "level 3" on the Torino impact hazard scale, but NASA says this will likely be reduced.

NASA describes Level 3 asteroids as "close encounters worthy of our attention."