Republicans on track to win 230 House seats, CBS model predicts
CBS explains that Battle Ground Tracker adopts a "district-by-region approach to analyzing races and measuring public opinion, in which control of Congress is won through hundreds of individual elections, not by the national popular vote."
Some Democrats hoped that the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade (1973) and end the constitutional right to abortion would steal some of the Republican Party's momentum. Still, high inflation and the normal rhythm of election cycles appear to be obstacles. Too big for Democrats to beat.
The projected net gain of 19 seats for Republicans is well above the additional seven seats the Republican Party needs to secure a majority. The Democrats - who hold 220 seats - can only afford a net loss of two seats.
The model has a margin of error of 12 seats, which means Republicans are expected to win between 218 and 242 seats. Even at the lower end of that range, Republicans will emerge from the midterms with control of the House of Representatives.
This group tracks back with the 235 seats Democrats won in the 2018 midterm elections, shortening, even at the end, the massive red wave of 2014, when Republicans won 247 seats.
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