Corona cases in Northern Virginia, state nearing 2020 numbers; A new peak is possible in early autumn
A July 30 update from Virginia's Bio collection Institute shows Alexandria is experiencing "significant" levels of community transmission of the corona. Still, other northern Virginia areas remain in the "moderate" category, as the CDC defines.
New COVID-19 cases in Northern Virginia and statewide were about the same levels seen a year ago -- before vaccines were available -- and a new project model could see statewide cases surpass the January peak by mid-September.
According to the Biocomplexity Institute at the University of Virginia, the increase over the past six weeks is due to the prevalence of the delta variant, which now exceeds 70% of all new cases in the state.
"Delta is a major public health concern," Yu. The Institute wrote in a July 30 modeling update about the pandemic. "It's significantly more transmissible and is thought to be largely responsible for the recent increase in cases in Virginia. Delta also causes more severe cases than previous variants."
Delta variant appears to cause more breakouts in vaccinated individuals than in previous variants; only 2.75% of cases statewide since May 1 have been in fully vaccinated individuals. In Northern Virginia, that number is even lower, at 1.91%, or just 123 out of more than 6,400 cases.
The report noted, "Evidence is mounting that it may be possible to capture and disseminate a delta variant even if a person has been fully vaccinated. In such cases, a vaccinated individual may experience little or no disease symptoms but remain contagious to others. It is likely They are less contagious than someone who has not been fully vaccinated and develops a disease, and the possibility of infecting others remains."
According to the model, if the delta variant continues to spread, statewide cases could reach 103 per 100,000 by mid-September, equal to or beyond the January peak.
The CDC recommended this week that vaccinated individuals resume wearing masks indoors in high-to-high prevalence areas. According to a UV analysis, many Virginia counties fall into this range, although much of northern Virginia still has moderate transmission levels.
Virginia Governor Ralph Northam on Thursday also recommended that masks be worn indoors but did not issue a mandate requiring them. The District of Columbia now requires masks indoors for everyone over the age of two when not eating or drinking.
All measures of epidemic spread have risen again over the past week — statewide and in Northern Virginia — and the state's seven-day average positivity rate for diagnostic tests has returned to more than 5% for the first time since spring. Health experts believe that more than 5% indicates that the spread of the virus is not under control. Most Northern Virginia health districts still have less than 5% positivity rates, although all have increased significantly over the past month.
In Northern Virginia, the seven-day average of new cases jumped from 16.9 in mid-June to 176.9 as of Friday. (The Ministry of Health has stopped updating case information on weekends.) This is the highest average since May 9. On July 30, 2020, the seven-day area average was 211.4.
The seven-day average rose to 869.1 cases statewide, the highest level since May 5, and 1,178 new cases Friday were the largest in a single day since April 30. The state average has increased more than sixfold since hitting its lowest point. 129.3 cases per day on June 20.
Virginia's seven-day average is now only 20.6% lower than the average on July 30, 2020, and that gap is narrowing every day.
Hospitalizations for COVID-19 treatment have continued to rise over the past week. The Virginia Hospital and Health Care Association reported Saturday that 475 patients confirmed or likely to have COVID are receiving treatment statewide, the most since June 4.
According to the state's Immunization Dashboard, the frequency of statewide vaccinations has held steady over the past six weeks at between 11,000 and 12,000 per day. The report noted that the number of first doses taken increased slightly in late July, however.
More than 9.43 million vaccine doses have been administered to the Virginia population, where 65% of the adult population and 54% of the total population are now vaccinated.
The number of reported statewide deaths from COVID-19 increased slightly this week, with 32 cases reported. Mortality tends to be a late indicator and can take several weeks to verify and register; Throughout the pandemic, deaths began to increase three to four weeks after the increase in cases. In Northern Virginia, only two new deaths were reported this week, both in Prince William County.
Statewide: 6,084 new cases (up from 3,801 in the previous week), 32 new deaths (up from 23 during the last week)
Statewide testing: 79,045 PCR diagnostic results (up from 65,298 the previous week)
Northern Virginia: 187,638 cases, 2,407 deaths
Statewide: 694,384 cases, 11,532 deaths
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