Who’s Leading the 2024 Presidential Race? The Odds Have Changed.
This Week, the presidential race polls have seen slim margins as Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris complete their final few weeks of campaigning. The race has tightened, but who’s ahead?
With less than a month until the 2024 presidential election, early statewide voting in Ohio kicked off Tuesday and will run through November 3.
Who’s Leading the Ohio Polls, Harris or Trump?
According to polling data from The New York Times, the Ohio polling average shows Trump holding a slight lead over Harris in the state. As of October 10, Trump was 51%, while Harris trailed by a narrow margin of 45%.
USA TODAY reports that Trump’s odds of winning Ohio are significantly higher at 92%, based on bets placed on cryptocurrency trading platform Polymarket.
Who Will Win the Presidential Election?
Here’s how some major polling services see the race through October 8:
The ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading nationally by 48.5% to Trump’s 45.9%, compared to Harris’ 48.1% to Trump’s 45.5% four weeks ago.
270towin shows Harris leading nationally by 2.7% over Trump, compared to Harris’ 0.9% four weeks ago.
RealClearPolling shows the odds favoring Harris with a spread of +2.0 over Trump compared to Harris’ +1.4 over Trump four weeks ago.
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, reports the odds of the betting public favoring Trump over Harris by 5.9 percentage points compared to Trump over Harris by 5.9 percentage points four weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers are reflected as of Tuesday, October 8, 2024, at 9:10 a.m. ET.
How accurate are the odds or polls in previous presidential elections?
According to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the favorite has only lost in a betting poll twice since 1866.
The Week wrote that the record of polls is more challenging, as different pollsters asking different types of people can often attract higher margins of error.
According to the Pew Research Center, errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections affected confidence in public opinion polls.
In both general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
Key Voting Dates in Ohio
Early voting is underway in Ohio. Here are some important dates ahead of the November 5 general election:
October 29: Deadline to apply for absentee ballots.
November 4: Absentee ballots returned by mail must be postmarked by this day.
November 5: Election Day.
November 9: Absentee ballots mailed on or before November 4 must arrive at boards of elections by this day to be counted.
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