What is the forecast for the fourth tropical cyclone on the US East Coast?

What is the forecast for the fourth tropical cyclone on the US East Coast?

Forecasters expect Tropical Storm Debby to form and swamp Florida.

Tropical storm warnings and advisories were lifted Friday for Florida's west coast as the developing system threatens to dump heavy rains on much of the state over the weekend.

The main impact of the storm — which will be named Tropical Storm Debby — is likely to be heavy rainfall, with up to a foot of rain possible in some areas. "This could lead to flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this week through Wednesday morning," the National Hurricane Center said Friday. Isolated river flooding is also possible.

The National Hurricane Center warned Friday that other impacts include tropical-storm-force winds and storm surges of one to three feet in some areas.

What is the forecast for the fourth potential tropical cyclone?

The National Hurricane Center said Friday that Tropical Cyclone Four, the tropical wave in question, moved across Cuba on Friday and will emerge over the Florida Straits (the J-shaped channel between the Florida Keys and Cuba) on Friday night or Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center said it will become a tropical depression overnight tonight, then Tropical Storm Debby on Saturday. A system becomes a named tropical storm from a depression when sustained winds reach 39 mph. If winds reach 74 mph, it becomes a hurricane.

"Keep in mind that a tropical cyclone will strengthen as it moves north, so the farther north it gets before making landfall, the better chance it has of reaching hurricane status," the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Florida, said Friday.

At some point, the storm will move inland and reemerge along the Atlantic coast, beginning a slow crawl along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas early next week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said its hurricane hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system later Friday.

Where is the potential tropical cyclone 4?

Location: 25 miles west of Camaguey, Cuba; 315 miles southeast of Key West

Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph

Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph

Florida state of emergency

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 54 of the state's 67 counties in anticipation of what could be the region's first major storm of the hurricane season, with the potential to cause weeks of river flooding, the Pensacola News Journal reported.

In a post on X Thursday afternoon, DeSantis said, "Florida is monitoring Hurricane 97L in the Atlantic Ocean, which is expected to strengthen and make landfall early this week. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause major flooding. I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and follow all guidance from @FLSERT and local emergency management officials."

Key West is ready

Key West Mayor Terri Johnston said her small island community is "well prepared but not worried" about the storm.

"Everyone is prepared; everyone knows what to do. Stock up on supplies, water, and batteries for 3-7 days, and remove all potential debris from the yard," she said Friday. "We are ready."

The National Hurricane Service warned Friday that a tornado or two could hit the Florida Keys and western Florida peninsula Saturday night into Sunday morning. Hurricanes pose a significant risk to all hurricanes, especially Beryl, which produced 67 in July.

Could the storm intensify quickly?

AccuWeather said Friday that the system will likely develop rapidly as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week. "As it moves over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf, a tropical rainstorm could quickly gain strength because the atmosphere will be more humid and disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, will be low," AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said in an online post.

"Given the extremely warm water temperatures in the northeastern Gulf, the potential for rapid intensification cannot be ignored," another meteorologist, Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami, said in a blog post-Friday.

Rapid intensification is the process by which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: the phenomenon is typically defined as a tropical cyclone (either a tropical storm or a hurricane) that intensifies at least 35 mph in 24 hours.

"Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters a favorable environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said last year. "That environment typically consists of very warm waters, low vertical wind shear, and high, moderate humidity levels."

According to the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as of Friday afternoon, Debbie's highest wind speeds are expected to reach 65 mph, still short of the 74 mph needed to achieve hurricane status.

Tropical Storm Debbie's projected track shows the system moving along Florida's west coast through the weekend.

Bottom line: Be prepared

Although the organized storm has not yet formed, meteorologists advise people to be prepared: "Residents from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida should "They need to be prepared in case it intensifies rapidly," meteorologist Paul Pastelok said Thursday.

The National Weather Service in Tampa said Thursday, "Right now, the bottom line is to monitor the progress of this system and check your hurricane preparedness plan."

With heavy rains expected, "be mindful of your flooding exposure," the National Weather Service said.

What is a tropical wave?

According to the National Weather Service, a tropical wave is a meteorological term for an elongated area of ​​low pressure, or the maximum cyclonic curvature, moving east-west across the tropics. Also known as an easterly wave, it can lead to the formation of a tropical storm.

What would need to happen for Tropical Storm Debbie to form?

If the storm forming over the Caribbean, dubbed potential tropical cyclone four, reaches wind speeds of 39 mph, it will be named Tropical Storm Debbie, the fourth named storm of the hurricane season. The Atlantic is expected to be very active in 2024.

When does the Atlantic hurricane season start?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

According to the Hurricane Center, hurricane season peaks on September 10, with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.