Hurricane season and July forecast in Florida

Hurricane season and July forecast in Florida

The 2022 hurricane season has been short all the time — three for three, counting the short and happy life of Tropical Storm Alex in early June. If you thought these brief candles seem more popular lately, you are correct: since 2019, there has been a record number of 27 shorts. More broadly, while Atlantic hurricane seasons averaged two shorter per year from 1950 to 2000, that number has since doubled to about four each.

Beginning around 2000, a new generation of advanced observational and diagnostic tools became available to NHC forecasters, including satellite-derived wind and microwave imagery, enhanced wind field reconnaissance data, and bright space charts of the stage of hurricanes. Using these techniques, the NHC can determine faster and more confidently that a disturbance meets the definition of a tropical cyclone.

The NHC also checks their work in real-time after each hurricane season ends, allowing additional storms to be added to the official record if there is strong evidence that they did; The time the system was a tropical storm is also adjusted to represent the total data better. All 24 abbreviations of the 2019-2021 seasons at some point met the exact definition of a tropical or subtropical cyclone in these subsequent analyses.

A broader review of the historical Atlantic hurricane record is underway. Currently, these adjustments have been completed until 1970, and, likely, an upcoming revision of satellite imagery and other data in the 1971-1999 seasons will add some "missing" abbreviations for those years, mitigating the apparent trend toward more abbreviated living storms.

Finally, even correcting these biases may have been a few other shortcuts to reckon with over the past few decades. Atlantic temperatures were generally calm.

Hurricane and hurricane seasons were quiet in the 1970s and 1980s and fluctuated with warmer temperatures in the mid-1990s. There will be more shortcuts and more severe tornadoes when switching from a calm system to an active system.

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